It was just after England had fallen to another defeat at the hands of New Zealand in the final match of Twickenham's autumn international series that a reader emailed to upbraid me, politely but firmly, for coming to premature and possibly inaccurate conclusions about Martin Johnson's performance at the start of his second season as team manager.
Making his case with quiet but articulate passion, the emailer strengthened his argument by admitting that the quality of England's rugby against Australia, Argentina and New Zealand had been humdrum at best and lamentable at worst. He was not trying to avoid the undeniable. But that, he emphasised, was beside the point.
Look back to last spring's Six Nations tournament, he said, and you will recall an England team in Johnson's care for less than a year but already capable of finishing in a respectable second place, just behind an Ireland side outstanding enough to be fancied as the northern hemisphere's standard bearers in the next Rugby World Cup. Not only that, but after completing the tournament with a resounding victory over France they ended up with the highest number of tries and points scored.
This, surely, was a more reliable indicator of Johnson's progress. In a relatively short time, he had turned the team into a coherent entity capable of capitalising on the attacking flair of some of the players whose gifts he had introduced into the team with great success, notably Delon Armitage and Riki Flutey. Able to choose from a squad relatively untroubled by injury, he appeared to have reconciled the two warring factions of English rugby coaching: a belief in ironclad defence on one side, a yearning for expansive, free-flowing attack on the other.
The problem this past autumn, my critic pointed out, was that injuries had wrecked Johnson's plans, so cruelly distorting the selection that it would be unfair to draw conclusions. A fair point, although it does not address the inability of England's second-string players to think on their feet or to find a way of producing quick ball. At this stage all Johnson's players should be showing at least a hint of the ability to maintain the coaching team's desired approach to the game.
Tomorrow is the day Johnson announces his final squad for this year's Six Nations. Armitage, Flutey, Toby Flood and Nick Easter are among those returning, no doubt with places in the starting line-up pre-booked. And, as usual, campaigns are being mounted for various outsiders, among them the wing Chris Ashton and the full-back Ben Foden from Northampton, the Leicester prop Dan Cole and the Bath centre Shontayne Hape.
Some appear worthier than others. Foden, we are told, is worth a place despite being suspect under the high ball – can you imagine Twickenham's reaction were he to play in the opening match against Wales and fumble two of the first three steeplers that came his way? But the one whose almost certain omission concerns me most is Danny Cipriani, who still seems not to have fully redeemed himself after a damaging altercation during a pre-tournament training camp in Portugal a year ago.
Brian Ashton, Johnson's predecessor, had the right approach to Cipriani's immaturity: the imposition of a clear punishment for an unauthorised night-club excursion, followed by a fresh start. Johnson seems less inclined to put a pastoral arm around his shoulder.
Not even Cipriani can do much when playing behind an overpowered pack, although he had a pretty good go behind Wasps's crumbling scrum at Leicester on Saturday, but Johnson's eventual readiness to reintegrate England's most creative player into his plans will say a lot about his chances of succeeding in a role to which he is still comparatively new and in which, as my correspondent quite correctly suggested, he deserves time and patience.
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